What's new in town

Condoleezza is in town. She's staying at the hotel right near my school -- there is a lot of security. She's attempting to revive some semblance of a peace plan. She also is around to promote Abbas, meet with King Abdullah of Jordan and the various Israeli diplomats. She has a variety of concerns for the future of the Middle East -- even though last I looked, the US of A was caught in a rather dirty mideast predicament.

In theory, the biggest threat in the region has nothing to do with Gaza, Baghdad or Beirut, but rather stems from Iran. There is little doubt that Iran provides major funding to Hamas or Hezbollah and other terrorist groups that pledge destruction of Israel. They also recently had an anti-Semitic media grab conference that fell under the guise of Holocaust denial.

In Israel it's hard to really gauge the Iranian threat to the country. Some believe that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is actually not as radical as he may seem and is a rather prudent politician who knows exactly how to be a really irritating thorn in the side of Israel and America and knows how to push the right buttons to grab media attention and create a frenzy, but in truth isn't all that dangerous and probably would not start a war, especially one against Israel.

Many believe that Ahmadinejad benefits more from instability in Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank and certainly Iraq than from declaring a full-scale war against Israel. Even with an advanced nuclear program, Iran probably doesn't pose a direct threat on Israel. The thought is that Iranian programs is so far behind Israel that an attack would mean almost certain destruction of Iran, has no guarantee at success, and could never be accurate enough as to not risk attacking a major Muslim area or even The Dome of the Rock (Islam's holiest location outside of Saudi Arabia).

Others believe that he is a crazy man who if truly has the capability to attack, wouldn't hesitate to attack Tel Aviv (or Paris, London, Rome or Madrid for that matter) and that he must be stopped. Israel attacked a reactor in Baghdad about 25 years ago in a remarkable strike and some feel that a similar strike, if the intelligence is strong enough, should be strongly considered. Many believe that the strike on Iraq saved thousands of lives in Israel and was essential to the preservation of the state. Israel has always denied having nuclear weapons but has also pledged that if need be it would be the first to use them.

Probably didn't shed all that much new light for anyone, but it is a fascinating development and it's hard to gauge what shape the Iranian situation will develop.

On a side note, when I lived in Chile, Colin Powell came to Santiago when I was living there. Colin took me out for a beer ... Condi told me she had more important things to do and told me to shove it.