Not really, but i'm sorry for those of you (two, maybe three) who missed the blog. I've had a hosts of guests and have been away a lot and also have a few other (mostly lame) reasons why I haven't posted in the last few weeks.
First some thoughts on the war:
Quiet, (or some sense of it) has descended on Israel. World War Three did not erupt and I am still safe, happy, learning hebrew and practicing jump shots in the land of milk and honey. From my point of view, the consesus of the country seems to be that the war was both a necessity and at the same time remarkably unproductive.
Necessity -- the majority of Israel supported the actions in the North. A country can't let soldiers be kidnapped and rockets fall on major cities. Since everyone goes to the Army, nobody would stand for inaction after soldiers were kidnapped. It hits too close to home. I knew of three (two in my program) people who had boyfriends/husbands called up to fight in Southern Lebanon and two others who had good friends die during the war.
Unproductive -- The war didn't stop the rockets from falling, Hezbollah was not anahillated, the kidnapped weren't returned and no long standing peace or even truce really exists.
Since the cease-fire, Joe/Jane Public have been remarakble critical of Israel and are slamming Olmert and his government for a host of reasons on the way they ran the war.
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For me, things are great. I've taken trips to Sinai, Tel-Aviv, Ashkelon (roman ruins on the Med. Sea), The Dead Sea, Ashdod and been all over Jerusalem. I'm looking forward to going to the north one day soon.
FYI
For those that want, this one in a series of articles written by a Professor at University of Tel-Aviv dealing with the war. I agree with a lot, disagree with some. But he seems to know his stuff. And he seems to admit his biases.
VI: WHAT WENT WRONG? ISRAEL'S WAR IN LEBANON
Historians often point out that to really understand a war, it's necessary to wait several years or more before it's possible to make an accurate assessment of what happened.
In the case of Israel's recent war in Lebanon, the assessments are flying around like bees in a bee hive, with a new one appearing every hour. We already have a long list of who should resign, who should apologize and who should declare his/her unsuitability for public office.
The erudite (and less than erudite) journalists and media experts have already judged everyone - except themselves. I have been reading reports and listening to the international media and am amazed at all the instant experts on all realms: they seem to know so much of how everyone is thinking, feeling and dreaming, that my envy has reached unexpected heights.
It's a difficult act to follow the multiple military experts who appear on TV for hours on end and manage to decide on tragic events with the aplomb of a bull in a china shop
Permit me to make some comments which might give the reader a handle on how to evaluate the past month, and the months ahead. I'm no general or journalist, though the time I spent in southern Lebanon in the 1982 War as a communications soldier gave me a fairly comfortable sense of that country. All I can claim in my favor is thirty five years on the faculty of Tel Aviv University and being totally biased towards Israel.
My list of "what went wrong" is a tentative statement and only time will prove me correct or not.
1) Israel is perceived as being weak by many of the players in the Middle East. Withdrawing from Lebanon in 2000 (which I supported) and giving back Gaza to the Palestinians and removing the Israeli "settlers" (which I supported) have been understood by observers as a clear sign that the Jews/Israelis are once again on the run. Many Muslims claim that just as the Crusaders were kicked out of the Holy Land the same will happen to the Jews. They believe that Jewish history is about the migrant, the nomad, the wanderer and that the modern sovereign state of Israel is a temporary aberration. Thus the Jews will either disappear or will return to their homes in Europe.
2) Israelis have increasingly been using their creative energies to build a dynamic and vibrant society. The goal is to live in a normal middle class and democratic country with all its benefits. Money and human resources have been invested in internal development and the successes of this tiny new state, surrounded by unfriendly neighbors, are mind boggling. As years went by, did the finest of our citizens, the brightest and boldest, go to business, industry and academia, and not the army?
3) We were fighting the last war. Israel had clearly not prepared itself for the Hezbollah, a powerful, well-armed, heavily-financed fighting force that was willing to use Lebanese citizens as human shields. Iranian and Syrian support over several years, underground bunkers and determined fighters seemed to have been ignored. Israeli intelligence, claimed to be excellent, was incorrect or inaccurate or, just not passed down the ranks. The question remains: who knew what and why didn't the soldiers in the field know more?
4) Chief of Staff Dan Halutz, the former chief of the air force, was convinced that air attacks over a period of more than 3 weeks would do the job. He was wrong. Where were the voices in the military asking the important questions? Did anyone really imagine that it was possible to reach the Litani River in less than 48 hours? Were our "experts" dreaming? Why weren’t techniques developed to deal with a guerilla force shooting missiles from highly populated civilian areas? I, a former simple soldier, looking at events from home, realized that the forces in the field were given impossible tasks to fulfill.
5) The Israel Defense Forces went into battle unprepared. Reports indicate that military equipment was lacking, food inadequate and instructions confused. Soldiers and junior officers are highly critical of senior officers. The reality of poor planning and limited insights remind one of the 1973 Yom Kippur War when the term "cigar smoking generals" was used. The upcoming commission of inquiry should deal with both military and political inadequacies.
6) Our Minister of Defense, Amir Peretz is totally useless. It's a pity he didn't remain Sderot's mayor or an official in the Histadrut (labor union). The minister of defense does not have to be a general, but he should have some insights, good advisors and an ability to evoke confidence. Mr Peretz failed on all accounts. The Yediot Ahranot newspaper (Aug 16) show that 63% of the Israelis polled maintain he did a bad job. The remaining 37% were unjustifiably kind to him.
7) Prime Minister Olmert has stated that he takes responsibility for all the problems. The Smith Research poll shows that 62% of the population feels he didn't handle the war properly. He has displayed an inability to multi-task as he had focused his attention on the Palestinian question and improving relations with western countries. One recalls Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion who led Israel during its War of Independence between November 1947 to January 1949 with limited resources but tremendous foresight and endurance.
8) The Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni, did not play the role required in a country at war. Her voice should have been heard around the world. During the crucial hours prior to the U.N. Resolution, when she should have been in the thick of discussion in New York, the Prime Minister demanded she remain in Jerusalem. We remember the erudite and brilliant Abba Eban, who appeared in the U.N. during the heady days of 1967 to represent Israel with dignity and honor?
9) The home front with over a million and a half civilians under attack received little government attention. Private initiatives, NGOs and local officials bore the brunt of the responsibility for the citizens' well-being. Families around the country invited people from the north to stay with them (we had 10 in four rounds), food parcels were sent and contributions from abroad enabled those areas under katyusha threat to somehow survive. The overall cost for Israel: 159 killed, over 5,000 injured, 12,000 homes damaged and over 750,000 trees burnt. The full financial implications have still to be evaluated though with overseas donations and a stable economy we will pull through.
10) One of the main reasons soldiers willingly went to war was to get back the 2 soldiers kidnapped by Hezbollah. This has not happened. A totally inadequate earlier U.N. resolution has been replaced by another one (1701) which appears little better. Will the Lebanese Army, which consists of some 60% Shiites and the international U.N. military force be willing or able to disarm Hezbollah? It is doubtful. I recall meeting 5 delightful Nepal UNIFIL soldiers in Lebanon many years ago who at the first indication of fireworks would probably have retreated hastily to a bunker.
11) Lebanon's loss is tremendous and tragic. This complex country, subjugated until recently by Syria and increasingly the playground of Iran, desperately needs help. Sheikh Nasrallah may be perceived by many as a hero today, but history will show if this viewpoint remains correct in the future as well. The Arab world is also a loser for most Muslims are Sunni and the success of the Lebanese Shiites bodes ill for them.
At this stage the reader may feel totally disillusioned. Permit me to conclude with encouraging aspects.
THE GOOD NEWS
1) Israeli society is pained but also patriotic and determined. More than 100% of the reservists called up for military service went to their bases. Israelis love their country and will fight for it. The war saw about a thousand immigrants arriving from western countries, openly declaring their commitment to becoming citizens regardless of the immediate crisis. The pacifists and intellectual left, while attracting media attention, remain marginal.
2) I believe that Israel received significant global support and understanding. We have friends in the world today who recognize the dangers of Iran, Syria, international terrorism and capitulation. However, now as in the past, the intellectual left is against Israel, probably regardless of its actions.
3) The media has often been unfair to Israel. Did I sense, though, that this time, there were distinct voices of support and understanding? The exposure of faked photos and incorrect reporting are of tremendous importance. "Reutersgate" which showed how photos were doctored, is just one sign of how carefully we must deal with some of the news outlets. Well done to all those fine people who are placing the media under a microscope to ensure balanced reporting. The internet provides a powerful alternative voice but the battle has just begun.
4) As hard hit as we have been, perhaps this has served as an early warning signal for us. Let us all listen to every threat of President Ahmadinejad of Iran and President Assad of Syria and take them seriously. One can only hope that ,with time, enough people in Europe will begin to appreciate the dangers of long range missiles from Teheran which can not only destroy Tel Aviv and Riyadh but also Rome, Paris and London.
5) Donations and messages of support came from all around the world. We now need tourists and investors.
6) Many Arab leaders, in their heart of hearts, hoped that Israel would defeat Hezbollah. They could clearly never express it openly but they know that Israel is not the problem in the Middle East- radical Islam is. Day by day extremists in Iraq are killing each other, often choosing the local mosque as the site for their violence.
Many challenges lie ahead. The well-being of Israel has a direct impact on the western world and if anyone is still in denial about the Islamists threat, all I can do is hope that he or she will see the light before it gets too dark.
